The African state is fast resizing, weaklings likely to be strangled

Last night and this morning, the army in Zimbabwe took drastic measures to rein in on Robert Gabriel Mugabe, the 93-year-old incumbent, who has been planning to hand over power to his wife Grace Mugabe, 52. The path to the presidency was littered with one landmine Emmerson Mgnangwa, the first Vice President and former Justice minister, a sprightly 75.
The second vice president comes from former ZAPU, who are minor coalition partners in Zanu PF first occupied by Joshua Nkomo. Zimbabwe has been on a feeble return to normalcy after becoming a basket case when its currency collapsed in 2009 and Whites fled the country after Zimbabwe nationalised its economy.
The army has mostly been shielded from tough times. Zimbabwe’s generals are affluent, live large and have benefited from Zimbabwe’s forays abroad. They are also said to be paid directly from the mineral kitty. It is interesting that some of the gossip around the putsch is really around money and the fact that the Finance minister has been sending more than he should to Ms Mugabe and her cronies.
The collapse of Zimbabwe into strife is not a joking matter. A medium size economy, it borders Angola, Zambia, Botswana, Mozambique, and South Africa. Namibia is just a few miles adrift on the Zambezi River in the Kazungula border area. Zimbabwe has been an emotional capital of the post-colonial resistance giving rise first to hope, then despair as the economy came to its knees.
Strategically, Zimbabwe represents the challenge of colonial borders. In the greater lakes region, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Malawi, Swaziland, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, South Sudan, Central African Republic, Zambia are landlocked. The DRC is also landlocked if you take into account that most of the country is cut off from the metropolitan region around Kinshasa and the copper belt. The landlocked tax remains a stifling block in this region as land freight is multiple times sea freight to Africa’s coastline. And the ocean border neighbours never miss a chance to reinforce that authority when need arises. The saving grace is that all these countries have recorded significant mineral findings in the last 30 years that could turn their fortunes around.
Problem is that this oil, natural gas, gold, steel needs to get to markets competitively - a farfetched dream. This state of affairs has stifled competition. South Sudan has literally collapsed out of a pipeline fee sharing arrangement with Sudan. Uganda has stories to tell on how its pipeline and railway have been shifting a few hundred kilometres every time a problem comes up between Kampala and its neighbours. Inner countries like Rwanda and Burundi are very tense neighbours, a feature that has strengthened draconian aspects of the state. CAR is still running on the grace of God after a decade of bloodletting.
In the next 50 years, some aspects of these colonial borders may have to loosen up. The landlocked countries should be looking for some federation where older boundaries mean less. Fighting ground wars is bloody and expensive, military strategists know this. The vast interior cannot accommodate strong men of the yesteryear like Mr Mugabe.
Even the tribe is too small compared to the challenge. The younger generation is likely to want to talk, Bantu languages, Luganda, sounds more like Chichewa, Shona further south than Runyankore next door. Kinyarwanda, Runyakitara cover a population of nearly 30 million people. Some Kenyans are willing to let Nyanza join Uganda creating a Luo enclave of 20 million people stretching to South Sudan.
The forced unification is coming because markets and geography demand it. Our children will not exhibit the patience of waiting for leaders who do not want to leave office. Years ago, Lagos became an urban Beirut. Kids began flying to Accra for the weekend. Many Ugandans descend every weekend to Kigali to have a nice time just like Kenyans come to enjoy Uganda’s cheap second- hand clothes.

Mr Ssemogerere is an Attorney-at-Law and an Advocate. [email protected]