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India’s natural gas consumption is expected to more than double to 297-365 million metric standard cubic meters per day (mmscmd) by 2030 and the sector will attract an investment of close to ₹70,000 crore, said Anil Kumar Jain, chairperson, Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB), during his visit to Gujarat, on Wednesday.
“Currently as per our internal estimates, 190 mmscmd of gas is being consumed daily in the country. Our estimate is that the biggest rise will be in the city gas distribution. As per the projections released today, we have presented two scenarios. By 2030 we will reach 297 mmscmd and if favourable situations prevail then we can even cross 360 mmscmd,” he said during an interaction held on the sidelines of the 2nd National Conclave on Natural Gas and Petroleum Products Infrastructure at Gandhinagar.
“Currently we have given permission for laying 10,000 kilometres of natural gas pipelines across the country, most of which is with GAIL and other companies. We are expecting an investment of ₹40,000 crore by 2030. Similarly, from the licenses for CGD we are expecting another ₹30,000 crore of investments as per the prices prevailing today,” Jain added.
“There are about 1.25 crore domestic PNG connections and as per the licences given across the number of PNG connections will go up to 12 crore by 2030. Similarly, we have 7200 CNG stations and as per the commitments made, the number will rise to 15,000 CNG stations by 2030,” he said, adding that the CNG adoption was progressing quickly and was ahead of the target.
When asked about the challenges faced by the natural gas sector as a PNGRB study in 2014 had projected natural gas consumption to touch almost 380 mmscmd by 2016, the PNGRB chairman said dependency on international prices of natural gas, varying state taxation and constraints in laying of natural gas infrastructure tend to pose hurdles.
As per the Good-to-Go scenario (as per the current regulatory and demand scenario) projected by PNGRB, the gas consumption is expected to reach 297 mmscmd by 2030. This reflects a CAGR of 8 per cent from base of FY 2023-24. In the Good-to-Best scenario (caused by any possible fall in prices or increased production of natural gas and boost through regulatory changes or policies), the potential consumption is expected to surpass 360 mmscmd by 2030 with a higher CAGR of 12 per cent. The CGD sector is expected to be the primary growth driver with consumption projected to grow 2.5-3.5 times by 2030.
India’s LNG imports are also set to double by 2030 driven by increasing demand and slower domestic production growth. Currently India’s natural gas production meets only 50 per cent of its demand.
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